September 22nd, 2009 — Investment Strategies
What can corporate America do with the idea of listening to the fringe? In the late 1960s and early 1970s, Ron Castel, vice president of marketing at BankOne, spoke to national assemblies of bankers, recommending they attend protests (in jeans), listen to rock musicians, and visit campuses (where they would smell an aroma different from that of conventional tobacco products). It was controversial advice for the normally white shirted, blue suited bankers. Those who did break out of their suited environments and listened to the fringe went on to invent the automatic teller machine (ATM), point of sale processing of credit cards, electronic funds transfer, and a host of other innovations in banking products that eventually penetrated the majority culture.
Passion and Energy Create Brands People Want to Adopt Jagger struts; Madonna vogues; Tyler twirls; Diamond radiates; Simmons stomps; John pounds his keys. Attend a concert by any of these superstars and you’ll surmise that the commonality uniting them is the extraordinary degree of passion and energy they project. Night after night, city after city, these professionals take the stage and take charge of the tens of thousands of fans standing before them. They win their attention with the quality of the music they play; they captivate them, however, with the energy they emote. They never stop moving while on stage, leaving fans exhausted at the end of their two to three hour concerts. Leaving the venue, you’ll undoubtedly hear people talk about how energetic they are. Fans respect sweat.
Brands project energy and passion as well-some just project more than others. Victoria’s Secret emits an intimate form of passion, while Nike projects passion for exercise and life. Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz is passionate about coffee. Wal Mart is passionate about consumers and giving them the best possible value. When cost savings are achieved in most firms, the savings often flow to the bottom line as higher profit margins. When Wal Mart works with vendors to lower their costs-something it does with a passion-or works passionately to lower its own expenses, it returns those savings to consumers in the form of lower prices. In the long run, its passion for prices results in more consumers buying more items more of the time-one reason why Wal Mart’s revenues are now over onequarter trillion dollars. Some firms rely on high margins, but market dominance is often achieved with velocity or rapid asset turnover.
September 22nd, 2009 — Investment Strategies
Wal Mart World Though some may not like to admit it, Wal Mart is part of contemporary American culture because it represents middle America’s desire for value in an environment that is nonthreatening and easy to navigate. Its strategies remain entrenched in the simple-it’s all about giving customers what they want to buy for the best prices possible and creating a shopping experience that keeps them coming back- but what it takes to execute that strategy continues to intensify. As Wal Mart fights for the lowest prices possible for consumers, its relationships with vendors become even more important. Wal Mart is now the biggest customer for many leading companies, including Kraft, Gillette, and Procter & Gamble. For these and 450 other suppliers, the relationship to Wal Mart is so vital that they have offices in or near Bentonville, with another 800 such branch offices planned to open in the next five years.
Wal Mart’s reach is still expanding. Even though it has already captured 8 percent of all U.S. retail sales (excluding auto dealers and restaurants), it has set its sights on banking, used car sales, travel, and Internet access, and there is no reason to believe its effect in these industries will be any less staggering than in those in which it already operates. In order to support its expected growth, Wal Mart plans to hire an additional 800,000 workers over the next five years, which in any economy, especially a stalled one, is a positive brand attribute in and of itself.
The Value of KISSing The successes of Wal Mart and KISS demonstrate that the most effective strategies are often simple, but involve brilliant approaches for relating to consumers. When implemented with excellence, winning strategies give advantages competitors cannot readily replicate, and often they succeed before the competitors even know they have been engaged. When a strategy is brilliantly conceived and executed with precision, an organization-whether a musical group or any other organization-dominates with a differential advantage that is difficult to duplicate.
September 22nd, 2009 — Investment Strategies
Though Wal Mart might not have been the most sleek, sophisticated retailer in America, it was the hottest, biggest retail deal to roll into these small towns. And though Wal Mart didn’t set off fireworks and employees didn’t march around in strange makeup, Wal Mart did generate as much buzz and fervor among its fans with its everyday low prices (EDLP) strategy, offering consumers consistent, low prices every day, every time they shopped. Competitors usually employed high low pricing, in which a particular item acts as a loss leader one day (to entice customers into the store to pay full price for everything else) and is full price the following day. Customers began seeing WalMart as their friend in an environment where most other stores faced rising expenses and tried to pass them on to customers in the form of higher prices. Low prices and value remain an important brand proposition for Wal Mart, which today uses the phrase “Always Low Prices” in its tagline.
The ultimate goal, however, was to enter larger suburban markets. First circling cities with a ring of stores in surrounding small towns, Wal Mart would then gradually build newer locations closer and closer to the target city. Incrementally, Wal Mart grew both in size and in operating efficiency, and by the early 1990s, its total sales were greater than those of the Goliaths who had previously ignored the little David from Bentonville and the markets they deemed too small.
Wal Mart continues to penetrate further into target markets, marching from conquered suburbs into larger cities. This type of expansion is forcing a new twist-going from stores so large that some customers have requested benches so they can rest during shopping sprees to a smaller, neighborhood market concept with less space and stock keeping units (SKUs) than in rural and urban locations.
September 4th, 2009 — Investment Strategies
2. The rate earned on the Standard & Poor’s index of 425 industrial stocks was about ?2% on asset value-due in part to the inclusion of the large and highly profitable IBM, which is not one of the DJIA 30 issues.
5793. Achart issued by American Telephone & Telegraph in 1971 indicates that the rates charged for residential telephone services were somewhat less in 1970 than in 1960.
4. Reported in the Wall Street Journal, October, 1970.
Chapter 3. A Century of Stock Market History: The Level of Stock Prices in Early 1. Both Standard & Poor’s and Dow Jones have separate averages for public utilities and transportation (chiefly railroad) companies. Since 1965 the New York Stock Exchange has computed an index representing the movement of all its listed common shares.
2. Made by the Center for Research in Security Prices of the University of Chicago, under a grant from the Charles E. Merrill Foundation.
3. This was first written in early 1971 with the DJIA at 940. The contrary view held generally on Wall Street was exemplified in a detailed study which reached a median valuation of 1520 for the DJIA in 1975.
This would correspond to a discounted value of, say, 1200 in mid1971. In March 1972 the DJIA was again at 940 after an intervening decline to 798. Again, Graham was right. The “detailed study” he mentions was too optimistic by an entire decade: The Dow Jones Industrial Average did not close above 1520 until December 13, 1985! Chapter 4. General Portfolio Policy: The Defensive Investor 1. A higher tax free yield, with sufficient safety, can be obtained from certain Industrial Revenue Bonds, a relative newcomer among financial inventions. They would be of interest particularly to the enterprising investor.
September 4th, 2009 — Investment Strategies
What lessons-again using the pretentious title of my 1920 pamphlet-can the analyst of 1958 learn from this linking of past with current attitudes? Not much of value, one is inclined to say. We can look back nostalgically to the good old days when we paid only for the present and could get the future for nothing-an “all this and Heaven too” combination. Shaking our heads sadly we mutter, “Those days are gone forever.” Have not investors and security analysts eaten of the tree of knowledge of good and evil prospects? By so doing have they not permanently expelled themselves from that Eden where promising common stocks at reasonable prices could be plucked off the bushes? Are we doomed always to run the risk either of paying unreasonably high prices for good quality and prospects, or of getting poor quality and prospects when we pay what seems a reasonable price? It certainly looks that way. Yet one cannot be sure even of that pessimistic dilemma. Recently, I did a little research in the longterm history of that towering enterprise, General Electric-stimulated by the arresting chart of fifty nine years of earnings and dividends appearing in their recently published 1957 Report. These figures are not without their surprises for the knowledgeable analyst. For one thing they show that prior to 1947 the growth of G. E.
September 4th, 2009 — Investment Strategies
So these are nine records of “coin flippers” from Graham andDoddsville. I haven’t selected them with hindsight from among thousands. It’s not like I am reciting to you the names of a bunch of lottery winners-people I had never heard of before they won the lottery. I selected these men years ago based upon their framework for investment decision making. I knew what they had been taught and additionally I had some personal knowledge of their intellect, character, and temperament. It’s very important to understand that this group has assumed far less risk than average; note their record in years when the general market was weak. While they differ greatly in style, these investors are, mentally, always buying the business, not buying the stock. A few of them sometimes buy whole businesses. Far more often they simply buy small pieces of businesses. Their attitude, whether buying all or a tiny piece of a business, is the same. Some of them hold portfolios with dozens of stocks; others concentrate on a handful. But all exploit the difference between the market price of a business and its intrinsic value.
I’m convinced that there is much inefficiency in the market.
These Graham and Doddsville investors have successfully exploited gaps between price and value. When the price of a stock can be influenced by a “herd” on Wall Street with prices set at the margin by the most emotional person, or the greediest person, or the most depressed person, it is hard to argue that the market always prices rationally. In fact, market prices are frequently nonsensical.
September 4th, 2009 — Investment Strategies
The purchasers view the current good earnings as equivalent to “earning power” and assume that prosperity is synonymous with safety. It is in those years that bonds and preferred stocks of inferior grade can be sold to the public at a price around par, because they carry a little higher income return or a deceptively attractive conversion privilege. It is then, also, that common stocks of obscure companies can be floated at prices far above the tangible investment, on the strength of two or three years of excellent growth.
These securities do not offer an adequate margin of safety in any admissible sense of the term. Coverage of interest charges and preferred dividends must be tested over a number of years, including preferably a period of subnormal business such as in 1970
September 4th, 2009 — Investment Strategies
Historically, companies took a common sense approach toward share repurchases, reducing them when stock prices were high and stepping them up when prices were low. After the stock market crash of October 19, 1987, for example, 400 companies announced new buybacks over the next 12 days alone-while only 107 firms had announced buyback programs in the earlier part of the year, when stock prices had been much higher. See Murali Jagannathan, Clifford P. Stephens, and Michael S. Weisbach, “Financial Flexibility and the Choice Between Dividends and Stock Repurchases,” Journal of Financial Economics, vol. 57, no. 3, September, 2000, p. 362.
The stock options granted by a company to its executives and employees give them the right (but not the obligation) to buy shares in the future at a discounted price. That conversion of options to shares is called “exercising” the options. The employees can then sell the shares at the current market price and pocket the difference as profit. Because hundreds of millions of options may be exercised in a given year, the company must increase its supply of shares outstanding. Then, however, the company’s total net income would be spread across a much greater number of shares, reducing its earnings per share. Therefore, the company typically feels compelled to buy back other shares to cancel out the stock issued to the option holders.
September 4th, 2009 — Investment Strategies
In the last 36 years practically nothing has actually been accomplished through intelligent action by the great body of shareholders. A sensible crusader-if there are any such-would take this as a sign that he has been wasting his time, and that he had better give up the fight. As it happens our cause has not been lost; it has been rescued by an extraneous development-known as takeovers, or take over bids.* We said in Chapter 8 that poor manage
- Ironically, takeovers began drying up shortly after Graham’s last revised
edition appeared, and the 1970s and early 1980s marked the absolute low point of modern American industrial efficiency. Cars were “lemons,” televisions and radios were constantly “on the fritz,” and the managers of many publicly traded companies ignored both the present interests of their outside shareholders and the future prospects of their own businesses. All ofments produce poor market prices. The low market prices, in turn, attract the attention of companies interested in diversifying their operations-and these are now legion. Innumerable such acquisitions have been accomplished by agreement with the existing managements, or else by accumulation of shares in the market and by offers made over the head of those in control. The price bid has usually been within the range of the value of the enterprise under reasonably competent management. Hence, in many cases, the inert public shareholder has been bailed out by the actions of “outsiders”-who at times may be enterprising individuals or groups acting on their own.
September 4th, 2009 — Investment Strategies
What, then, had pounded these two stocks down? Between July and July 23, 2002, as WorldCom keeled over into bankruptcy, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell from 9096.09 to 7702.34, a 15.3% plunge. The good news at Ball and Stryker got lost in the bad headlines and falling markets, which took these two stocks down with them.
Although Ball ended up priced far more cheaply than Stryker, the lesson here is not that Ball was a steal and Stryker was a wild pitch.
Instead, the intelligent investor should recognize that market panics can create great prices for good companies (like Ball) and good prices for great companies (like Stryker). Ball finished 2002 at $51. a share, up 53% from its July low; Stryker ended the year at $67.12, up 47%. Every once in a while, value and growth stocks alike go on sale. Which choice you prefer depends largely on your own personality, but bargains can be had on either side of the plate.
PAIR 7: NORTEL AND NORTEK The 1999 annual report for Nortel Networks, the fiber optic equipment company, boasted that it was “a golden year financially.” As of February 2000, at a market value of more than $150 billion, Nortel’s stock traded at 87 times the earnings that Wall Street’s analysts estimated the company would produce in 2000.